Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Testing & Certification International Group Co.,Ltd. (603060.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.60 - $17.12$8.92
Multi-Stage$3.86 - $4.21$4.03
Blended Fair Value$6.48
Current Price$6.40
Upside1.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.41%18.95%0.160.150.090.090.080.070.060.040.150.03
YoY Growth--6.45%61.05%0.63%20.90%6.99%24.19%30.65%-70.74%435.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.98%0.81%0.86%0.57%0.93%0.78%0.73%1.73%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7221.7013.02
Cash Retained (M)59.2559.2559.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.72-21.70-13.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.5337.5546.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.60$8.92$17.12
Upside / Downside-12.53%39.43%167.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.58184.86196.88209.68223.31237.82244.96
Payout Ratio65.87%70.69%75.52%80.35%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.33130.69148.68168.47190.20214.04226.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.04120.17121.30
Year 2 PV (M)123.36125.71128.08
Year 3 PV (M)127.32130.97134.70
Year 4 PV (M)130.93135.97141.15
Year 5 PV (M)134.21140.69147.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,469.402,588.672,712.51
Equity Value (M)3,104.263,242.183,385.16
Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
Fair Value$3.86$4.03$4.21
Upside / Downside-39.70%-37.02%-34.24%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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