Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Guiyang Co.,Ltd. (601997.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.24 - $24.82$19.53
Multi-Stage$26.86 - $29.51$28.16
Blended Fair Value$23.85
Current Price$5.76
Upside313.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.51%26.16%0.901.020.991.061.191.330.970.750.260.09
YoY Growth---11.73%2.28%-6.66%-10.48%-10.25%37.15%29.68%186.64%189.69%2.16%
Dividend Yield--15.23%18.62%18.04%16.74%14.58%17.30%10.14%7.26%2.08%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,108.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,036.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,021.68638.55383.13
Cash Retained (M)3,071.983,071.983,071.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,021.68-638.55-383.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,050.302,433.432,688.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,693.643,693.643,693.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Fair Value$15.24$19.53$24.82
Upside / Downside164.54%239.03%330.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,108.395,148.695,189.295,230.225,271.485,313.055,472.44
Payout Ratio39.86%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,036.422,568.753,109.353,658.314,215.754,781.755,062.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)2,376.112,399.922,423.73
Year 2 PV (M)2,660.482,714.072,768.20
Year 3 PV (M)2,895.462,983.393,073.07
Year 4 PV (M)3,086.443,212.033,341.41
Year 5 PV (M)3,238.293,403.833,576.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,969.0889,312.7293,832.21
Equity Value (M)99,225.86104,025.96109,014.69
Shares Outstanding (M)3,693.643,693.643,693.64
Fair Value$26.86$28.16$29.51
Upside / Downside366.39%388.95%412.40%

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