Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China International Capital Corporation Limited (601995.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.66 - $142.87$76.70
Multi-Stage$99.53 - $109.45$104.39
Blended Fair Value$90.54
Current Price$36.89
Upside145.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.21%0.00%0.280.190.310.190.880.140.140.140.010.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-40.00%66.67%-79.00%516.68%0.00%5.21%1,018.63%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.57%0.79%0.45%1.80%0.38%0.38%0.36%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,402.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,862.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,540.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,880.571,175.36705.22
Cash Retained (M)3,540.523,540.523,540.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,880.57-1,175.36-705.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,659.952,365.162,835.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,690.664,690.664,690.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.500.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.500.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Fair Value$48.66$76.70$142.87
Upside / Downside31.91%107.91%287.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,402.879,630.049,862.7010,100.9810,345.0110,594.9410,912.79
Payout Ratio62.35%67.88%73.41%78.94%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,862.356,536.597,239.997,973.568,738.369,535.4510,094.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)6,178.776,239.706,300.63
Year 2 PV (M)6,469.046,597.256,726.71
Year 3 PV (M)6,734.506,935.697,140.84
Year 4 PV (M)6,976.437,255.697,543.25
Year 5 PV (M)7,196.087,557.927,934.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)433,294.34455,082.03477,737.50
Equity Value (M)466,849.17489,668.28513,383.10
Shares Outstanding (M)4,690.664,690.664,690.66
Fair Value$99.53$104.39$109.45
Upside / Downside169.79%182.98%196.69%

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