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Definitive Analysis

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COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (601919.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$203.96 - $484.13$453.70
Multi-Stage$72.62 - $79.41$75.95
Blended Fair Value$264.83
Current Price$14.34
Upside1,746.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.40%15.90%0.771.983.070.130.220.290.210.130.150.18
YoY Growth---60.96%-35.57%2,211.89%-38.71%-26.02%39.91%65.13%-17.55%-14.46%1.78%
Dividend Yield--5.30%19.01%27.79%0.86%2.08%9.25%4.95%2.79%3.38%3.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,046.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,613.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,432.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,609.204,755.752,853.45
Cash Retained (M)12,432.1512,432.1512,432.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,609.20-4,755.75-2,853.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,822.957,676.409,578.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,628.8915,628.8915,628.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.490.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.490.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$203.96$453.70$484.13
Upside / Downside1,322.32%3,063.88%3,276.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,046.0240,519.0243,152.7545,957.6848,944.9352,126.3553,690.14
Payout Ratio67.32%71.86%76.39%80.93%85.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,613.8729,116.4432,966.1337,193.2541,830.6346,913.7249,663.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27,080.8127,337.5027,594.19
Year 2 PV (M)28,517.7029,060.8829,609.19
Year 3 PV (M)29,925.0030,784.0431,659.36
Year 4 PV (M)31,303.1232,506.9533,745.17
Year 5 PV (M)32,652.5034,229.6235,867.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)985,541.411,033,143.431,082,567.29
Equity Value (M)1,135,020.531,187,062.421,241,042.31
Shares Outstanding (M)15,628.8915,628.8915,628.89
Fair Value$72.62$75.95$79.41
Upside / Downside406.44%429.66%453.74%

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