Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd (601918.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.90 - $155.77$56.70
Multi-Stage$19.40 - $21.25$20.30
Blended Fair Value$38.50
Current Price$6.23
Upside518.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.23%0.58%0.330.290.280.300.350.350.360.380.390.34
YoY Growth--15.14%5.19%-9.43%-12.42%-2.14%-2.37%-4.30%-3.05%13.52%9.55%
Dividend Yield--4.87%3.38%6.67%5.20%10.81%13.04%10.26%11.86%7.80%5.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,045.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,661.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)409.04255.65153.39
Cash Retained (M)1,661.311,661.311,661.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-409.04-255.65-153.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,252.271,405.661,507.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,590.542,590.542,590.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$28.90$56.70$155.77
Upside / Downside363.88%810.16%2,400.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,045.202,160.782,282.892,411.912,548.212,692.222,772.99
Payout Ratio18.77%33.02%47.26%61.51%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.88713.401,078.941,483.521,930.372,423.002,565.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)660.80667.11673.43
Year 2 PV (M)925.70943.47961.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,178.961,213.081,247.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,420.971,476.061,532.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,652.081,732.541,816.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,405.4346,567.9648,813.92
Equity Value (M)50,243.9452,600.2255,045.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,590.542,590.542,590.54
Fair Value$19.40$20.30$21.25
Upside / Downside211.32%225.92%241.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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