Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (601872.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.29 - $124.70$116.86
Multi-Stage$16.42 - $17.95$17.17
Blended Fair Value$67.02
Current Price$8.88
Upside654.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.73%39.04%0.490.350.210.160.150.160.110.140.080.04
YoY Growth--39.80%67.25%28.07%6.04%-4.93%44.61%-21.10%85.06%87.89%125.52%
Dividend Yield--7.52%4.40%2.99%3.47%3.55%3.05%2.70%4.59%1.70%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,038.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,966.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,007.63629.77377.86
Cash Retained (M)2,071.622,071.622,071.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,007.63-629.77-377.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,063.991,441.851,693.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,035.128,035.128,035.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.29$116.86$124.70
Upside / Downside308.72%1,215.99%1,304.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,038.165,365.645,714.406,085.846,481.426,902.717,109.79
Payout Ratio58.88%65.11%71.33%77.55%83.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,966.543,493.314,076.024,719.725,429.896,212.446,576.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,235.383,266.053,296.72
Year 2 PV (M)3,496.353,562.943,630.17
Year 3 PV (M)3,749.593,857.233,966.91
Year 4 PV (M)3,995.294,148.934,306.97
Year 5 PV (M)4,233.584,438.074,650.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)113,229.30118,698.32124,376.65
Equity Value (M)131,939.50137,971.55144,227.79
Shares Outstanding (M)8,035.128,035.128,035.12
Fair Value$16.42$17.17$17.95
Upside / Downside84.91%93.37%102.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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