Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (601860.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.03 - $9.02$6.71
Multi-Stage$7.36 - $8.08$7.72
Blended Fair Value$7.21
Current Price$2.80
Upside157.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.10%26.28%0.110.110.150.240.340.470.500.090.050.06
YoY Growth--6.02%-30.88%-36.79%-29.64%-27.69%-5.39%461.40%65.45%-7.80%440.00%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.06%5.89%7.81%8.93%11.24%5.40%1.98%1.19%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,476.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,106.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.25184.53110.72
Cash Retained (M)1,106.421,106.421,106.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.25-184.53-110.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.16921.88995.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$5.03$6.71$9.02
Upside / Downside79.79%139.51%222.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,476.271,509.321,543.111,577.651,612.971,649.071,698.54
Payout Ratio25.05%38.04%51.03%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.86574.19787.481,010.031,242.161,484.171,571.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)530.92536.17541.41
Year 2 PV (M)673.28686.65700.15
Year 3 PV (M)798.50822.40846.77
Year 4 PV (M)908.02944.43981.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,003.191,053.721,106.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,961.6827,269.4728,629.43
Equity Value (M)29,875.6031,312.8432,805.96
Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
Fair Value$7.36$7.72$8.08
Upside / Downside162.89%175.54%188.68%

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