Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co., Ltd. (601579.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.36 - $62.66$23.58
Multi-Stage$9.71 - $10.60$10.15
Blended Fair Value$16.86
Current Price$20.52
Upside-17.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.52%12.37%0.210.310.200.060.020.140.130.120.120.13
YoY Growth---31.95%57.10%224.38%148.83%-82.56%5.27%8.73%-2.05%-6.56%103.55%
Dividend Yield--2.01%3.08%1.57%0.66%0.26%1.83%1.32%1.13%0.92%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9624.9814.99
Cash Retained (M)10.5210.5210.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.96-24.98-14.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-29.44-14.46-4.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)469.59469.59469.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Fair Value$13.36$23.58$62.66
Upside / Downside-34.88%14.93%205.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.82211.53223.92237.03250.91265.60273.57
Payout Ratio94.73%93.79%92.84%91.89%90.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.30198.39207.88217.81228.19239.04253.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Year 1 PV (M)182.75184.50186.24
Year 2 PV (M)176.42179.80183.21
Year 3 PV (M)170.28175.20180.21
Year 4 PV (M)164.34170.70177.24
Year 5 PV (M)158.59166.29174.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,707.823,888.034,075.18
Equity Value (M)4,560.194,764.514,976.37
Shares Outstanding (M)469.59469.59469.59
Fair Value$9.71$10.15$10.60
Upside / Downside-52.68%-50.56%-48.36%

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