Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Changsha Co., Ltd. (601577.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.61 - $70.03$48.31
Multi-Stage$44.66 - $48.95$46.77
Blended Fair Value$47.54
Current Price$8.83
Upside438.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.68%21.48%0.770.350.690.640.540.390.150.180.120.11
YoY Growth--122.46%-49.42%8.25%18.19%37.77%154.40%-15.99%54.03%8.41%-1.10%
Dividend Yield--8.44%4.45%8.70%8.31%5.15%5.05%1.37%1.59%1.03%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,197.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,303.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,893.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,639.501,024.69614.81
Cash Retained (M)3,893.903,893.903,893.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,639.50-1,024.69-614.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,254.402,869.213,279.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,042.714,042.714,042.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.710.81
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.710.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$34.61$48.31$70.03
Upside / Downside291.96%447.06%693.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,197.518,463.318,737.729,021.049,313.549,615.529,903.99
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,303.615,077.925,897.916,765.747,683.658,653.979,161.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)4,698.244,744.194,790.14
Year 2 PV (M)5,048.905,148.145,248.36
Year 3 PV (M)5,358.745,517.525,679.41
Year 4 PV (M)5,630.725,854.266,084.40
Year 5 PV (M)5,867.616,160.226,464.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,959.62161,637.49169,618.67
Equity Value (M)180,563.82189,061.83197,885.36
Shares Outstanding (M)4,042.714,042.714,042.71
Fair Value$44.66$46.77$48.95
Upside / Downside405.82%429.63%454.35%

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