Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. (601555.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.19 - $139.75$130.96
Multi-Stage$18.93 - $20.68$19.79
Blended Fair Value$75.38
Current Price$9.80
Upside669.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.31%20.63%0.470.410.400.390.410.380.430.320.300.13
YoY Growth--15.63%2.46%0.47%-4.68%8.83%-10.81%33.40%7.32%121.08%87.14%
Dividend Yield--6.00%5.74%5.72%5.25%4.47%5.01%4.44%4.30%2.67%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,469.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,316.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,153.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)693.87433.67260.20
Cash Retained (M)1,153.091,153.091,153.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-693.87-433.67-260.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)459.22719.42892.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,937.314,937.314,937.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.19$130.96$139.75
Upside / Downside340.67%1,236.34%1,325.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,469.343,694.853,935.014,190.794,463.194,753.294,895.89
Payout Ratio66.76%71.41%76.06%80.71%85.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,316.252,638.512,992.893,382.193,809.454,277.974,528.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,445.642,468.832,492.01
Year 2 PV (M)2,571.332,620.312,669.75
Year 3 PV (M)2,693.392,770.712,849.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,811.882,920.023,031.24
Year 5 PV (M)2,926.893,068.263,215.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,994.9883,858.7787,870.43
Equity Value (M)93,444.1197,706.88102,127.96
Shares Outstanding (M)4,937.314,937.314,937.31
Fair Value$18.93$19.79$20.68
Upside / Downside93.12%101.93%111.07%

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