Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.74 - $19.20$15.07
Multi-Stage$20.35 - $22.35$21.33
Blended Fair Value$18.20
Current Price$7.30
Upside149.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.33%5.55%0.510.490.420.380.370.340.330.300.290.30
YoY Growth--2.87%18.76%10.99%2.42%7.41%4.93%9.61%1.71%-2.38%0.79%
Dividend Yield--7.39%9.35%9.34%7.87%6.62%6.63%5.77%4.87%6.03%6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)207,674.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73,349.2045,843.2527,505.95
Cash Retained (M)207,674.00207,674.00207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-73,349.20-45,843.25-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)134,324.80161,830.75180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$11.74$15.07$19.20
Upside / Downside60.79%106.40%162.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)366,746.00370,115.21373,515.37376,946.77380,409.69383,904.42395,421.55
Payout Ratio43.37%52.70%62.02%71.35%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159,072.00195,047.42231,670.42268,949.84306,894.67345,513.98365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)180,327.49182,132.23183,936.97
Year 2 PV (M)198,022.26202,005.76206,028.93
Year 3 PV (M)212,537.93218,983.33225,557.75
Year 4 PV (M)224,220.96233,332.75242,719.47
Year 5 PV (M)233,385.68245,300.58257,697.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,039,066.076,347,374.876,668,148.97
Equity Value (M)7,087,560.387,429,129.537,784,089.31
Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
Fair Value$20.35$21.33$22.35
Upside / Downside178.82%192.25%206.22%

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