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Bank of Shanghai Co., Ltd. (601229.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.61 - $202.71$79.62
Multi-Stage$37.21 - $40.66$38.90
Blended Fair Value$59.26
Current Price$8.96
Upside561.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.48%36.25%1.290.400.880.830.760.750.770.350.000.07
YoY Growth--222.66%-54.46%6.22%8.82%1.38%-2.36%120.55%13,437.20%-96.22%16.09%
Dividend Yield--13.11%5.90%14.67%12.46%8.65%9.10%8.18%4.28%0.03%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,047.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22,541.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,506.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,809.583,005.991,803.59
Cash Retained (M)1,506.021,506.021,506.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,809.58-3,005.99-1,803.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,303.56-1,499.97-297.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,165.5016,165.5016,165.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.09-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.09-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$45.61$79.62$202.71
Upside / Downside409.05%788.61%2,162.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,047.9125,324.8026,669.4928,085.5929,576.8731,147.3432,081.76
Payout Ratio93.74%92.99%92.24%91.49%90.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22,541.8923,549.5124,600.5925,696.9026,840.2628,032.6029,675.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)21,793.5022,002.4322,211.36
Year 2 PV (M)21,068.5921,474.4921,884.26
Year 3 PV (M)20,366.4620,957.8421,560.56
Year 4 PV (M)19,686.4120,452.2621,240.24
Year 5 PV (M)19,027.7819,957.5220,923.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)499,647.93524,061.76549,420.73
Equity Value (M)601,590.66628,906.29657,240.39
Shares Outstanding (M)16,165.5016,165.5016,165.50
Fair Value$37.21$38.90$40.66
Upside / Downside315.34%334.20%353.76%

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