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China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.14 - $325.23$110.95
Multi-Stage$47.42 - $51.92$49.63
Blended Fair Value$80.29
Current Price$7.85
Upside922.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.91%6.65%1.641.440.250.230.210.210.930.870.760.85
YoY Growth--14.33%484.47%6.96%9.52%0.00%-77.46%7.47%13.88%-10.59%-1.38%
Dividend Yield--20.76%16.53%2.73%3.00%2.62%2.14%7.99%8.85%5.86%7.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,511.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,496.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,015.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,502.382,813.991,688.39
Cash Retained (M)8,015.058,015.058,015.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,502.38-2,813.99-1,688.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,512.675,201.076,326.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$58.14$110.95$325.23
Upside / Downside640.64%1,313.36%4,043.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,511.9023,647.9324,841.2926,094.8727,411.7128,795.0129,658.86
Payout Ratio64.40%69.52%74.64%79.76%84.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,496.8416,439.3518,541.0020,812.8923,266.8625,915.5127,434.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)15,300.6015,447.6515,594.71
Year 2 PV (M)16,061.2916,371.5016,684.69
Year 3 PV (M)16,780.4417,268.9417,766.83
Year 4 PV (M)17,459.5218,140.4818,841.17
Year 5 PV (M)18,099.9718,986.6619,907.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)560,298.34587,746.32616,259.62
Equity Value (M)644,000.16673,961.55705,054.76
Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
Fair Value$47.42$49.63$51.92
Upside / Downside504.13%532.24%561.41%

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