Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Eastern Air Logistics Co., Ltd. (601156.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.89 - $22.34$18.42
Multi-Stage$13.09 - $14.21$13.64
Blended Fair Value$16.03
Current Price$15.75
Upside1.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.04%0.00%0.390.360.690.000.340.160.270.020.010.00
YoY Growth--8.32%-48.47%151,897.37%-99.87%112.50%-41.07%1,568.83%34.53%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.74%1.95%4.56%0.00%1.51%0.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,621.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,074.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,546.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)524.31327.69196.62
Cash Retained (M)1,546.781,546.781,546.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-524.31-327.69-196.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,022.471,219.081,350.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,595.671,595.671,595.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate14.81%14.81%14.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.89$18.42$22.34
Upside / Downside-5.47%16.93%41.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,621.552,791.952,973.433,166.703,372.543,591.753,699.51
Payout Ratio41.00%50.80%60.60%70.40%80.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,074.781,418.261,801.862,229.332,704.763,232.583,422.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate14.81%14.81%14.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,223.681,235.271,246.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,341.351,366.901,392.69
Year 3 PV (M)1,431.881,472.981,514.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,498.891,556.541,615.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,545.621,620.271,697.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,850.5314,519.5215,214.11
Equity Value (M)20,891.9421,771.4822,682.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,595.671,595.671,595.67
Fair Value$13.09$13.64$14.21
Upside / Downside-16.87%-13.37%-9.75%

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