Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.85 - $567.55$531.85
Multi-Stage$92.23 - $100.89$96.48
Blended Fair Value$314.17
Current Price$40.54
Upside674.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.73%9.51%2.262.552.691.811.390.880.910.460.320.74
YoY Growth---11.37%-5.11%48.47%30.33%57.64%-3.30%97.84%43.74%-56.75%-18.69%
Dividend Yield--5.89%6.64%9.54%6.08%6.91%5.42%4.52%2.21%1.65%5.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,634.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,400.807,125.504,275.30
Cash Retained (M)10,634.0010,634.0010,634.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,400.80-7,125.50-4,275.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-766.803,508.506,358.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,871.7919,871.7919,871.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.180.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.332.332.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.180.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Fair Value$190.85$531.85$567.55
Upside / Downside370.76%1,211.91%1,299.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,004.0060,393.2363,983.9667,788.1971,818.6076,088.6478,371.30
Payout Ratio81.35%83.08%84.81%86.54%88.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,370.0050,172.3654,262.9458,662.5963,393.5868,479.7872,493.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)46,794.0347,239.9247,685.81
Year 2 PV (M)47,201.4448,105.2749,017.67
Year 3 PV (M)47,592.5648,966.0650,365.73
Year 4 PV (M)47,967.7349,822.3251,730.17
Year 5 PV (M)48,327.2650,674.0553,111.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,594,985.371,672,438.501,752,871.74
Equity Value (M)1,832,868.401,917,246.122,004,782.26
Shares Outstanding (M)19,871.7919,871.7919,871.79
Fair Value$92.23$96.48$100.89
Upside / Downside127.52%137.99%148.86%

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