Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (601077.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.23 - $9.44$7.74
Multi-Stage$13.37 - $14.68$14.01
Blended Fair Value$10.88
Current Price$6.59
Upside65.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.05%7.13%0.310.290.270.220.230.180.180.170.150.16
YoY Growth--5.85%9.63%20.10%-3.59%31.48%-1.20%2.26%13.98%-6.92%5.11%
Dividend Yield--5.09%6.31%7.27%5.58%5.43%3.31%1.90%1.85%1.63%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,153.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,026.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,126.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,630.751,019.22611.53
Cash Retained (M)1,126.901,126.901,126.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,630.75-1,019.22-611.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-503.85107.69515.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,359.4111,359.4111,359.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.23$7.74$9.44
Upside / Downside-5.45%17.48%43.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,153.758,072.217,991.497,911.577,832.467,754.137,986.76
Payout Ratio86.18%86.94%87.71%88.47%89.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,026.857,018.267,009.146,999.516,989.366,978.727,387.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6,490.966,557.196,623.43
Year 2 PV (M)5,995.486,118.466,242.69
Year 3 PV (M)5,537.405,708.655,883.39
Year 4 PV (M)5,113.945,325.895,544.36
Year 5 PV (M)4,722.514,968.435,224.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)124,007.87130,465.25137,188.87
Equity Value (M)151,868.17159,143.87166,707.22
Shares Outstanding (M)11,359.4111,359.4111,359.41
Fair Value$13.37$14.01$14.68
Upside / Downside102.87%112.59%122.70%

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