Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited (601018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.61 - $9.99$6.59
Multi-Stage$3.52 - $3.84$3.68
Blended Fair Value$5.13
Current Price$3.65
Upside40.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.01%4.57%0.110.110.070.070.070.060.080.070.090.11
YoY Growth--1.59%52.70%9.76%-0.61%4.21%-21.76%9.68%-13.67%-19.23%48.20%
Dividend Yield--3.02%3.22%2.01%1.69%1.60%1.81%1.82%1.40%1.58%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,665.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,280.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,384.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)933.01583.13349.88
Cash Retained (M)2,384.802,384.802,384.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-933.01-583.13-349.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,451.791,801.672,034.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$4.61$6.59$9.99
Upside / Downside26.16%80.56%173.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,665.034,962.685,279.325,616.165,974.506,355.706,546.37
Payout Ratio48.88%57.10%65.33%73.55%81.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,280.232,833.863,448.854,130.784,885.705,720.136,055.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)2,557.682,581.952,606.22
Year 2 PV (M)2,809.382,862.952,917.03
Year 3 PV (M)3,036.953,124.233,213.16
Year 4 PV (M)3,241.903,366.723,495.11
Year 5 PV (M)3,425.683,591.343,763.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,674.3956,269.8858,964.82
Equity Value (M)68,745.9871,797.0674,959.68
Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
Fair Value$3.52$3.68$3.84
Upside / Downside-3.49%0.79%5.23%

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