Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Suntien Green Energy Corporation Limited (600956.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.69 - $12.66$9.10
Multi-Stage$5.43 - $5.90$5.66
Blended Fair Value$7.38
Current Price$7.70
Upside-4.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.14%31.76%0.650.200.170.130.120.110.090.060.010.03
YoY Growth--233.40%15.57%33.55%8.80%3.63%21.36%63.49%320.00%-51.61%-32.61%
Dividend Yield--9.16%2.34%1.81%0.97%0.76%2.45%2.02%1.24%0.29%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,735.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,048.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)347.13216.96130.17
Cash Retained (M)687.50687.50687.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-347.13-216.96-130.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.37470.54557.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,132.764,132.764,132.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.69$9.10$12.66
Upside / Downside-13.13%18.22%64.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,735.671,848.481,968.632,096.602,232.872,378.012,449.35
Payout Ratio60.39%66.31%72.23%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,048.171,225.761,422.021,638.611,877.362,140.212,265.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,095.911,106.291,116.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,136.681,158.331,180.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,171.051,204.661,238.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,199.531,245.661,293.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,222.601,281.661,342.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,594.6517,396.1818,228.38
Equity Value (M)22,420.4223,392.7824,400.24
Shares Outstanding (M)4,132.764,132.764,132.76
Fair Value$5.43$5.66$5.90
Upside / Downside-29.54%-26.49%-23.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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