Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.,Ltd. (600905.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.46 - $37.06$34.73
Multi-Stage$7.52 - $8.24$7.87
Blended Fair Value$21.30
Current Price$4.25
Upside401.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162010
DPS5.52%52.71%0.230.220.170.150.090.180.050.060.040.00
YoY Growth--5.72%29.11%8.75%72.85%-49.01%253.70%-10.07%42.17%1,333.56%-18.67%
Dividend Yield--5.43%4.63%3.07%2.52%2.35%4.60%1.30%1.45%1.02%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,331.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,253.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,077.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,066.21666.38399.83
Cash Retained (M)2,077.762,077.762,077.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,066.21-666.38-399.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,011.541,411.371,677.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,605.0128,605.0128,605.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.46$34.73$37.06
Upside / Downside640.21%717.28%772.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,331.075,677.596,046.646,439.676,858.257,304.037,523.15
Payout Ratio61.03%66.82%72.62%78.41%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,253.323,793.794,390.795,049.365,775.006,573.636,958.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,558.863,592.593,626.33
Year 2 PV (M)3,863.823,937.414,011.70
Year 3 PV (M)4,168.194,287.854,409.77
Year 4 PV (M)4,471.984,643.964,820.86
Year 5 PV (M)4,775.195,005.845,245.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)194,393.44203,782.72213,531.34
Equity Value (M)215,231.49225,250.37235,645.30
Shares Outstanding (M)28,605.0128,605.0128,605.01
Fair Value$7.52$7.87$8.24
Upside / Downside77.04%85.28%93.83%

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