Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Hongfa Technology Co., Ltd. (600885.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.26 - $157.71$64.36
Multi-Stage$23.17 - $25.33$24.23
Blended Fair Value$44.30
Current Price$26.36
Upside68.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.76%33.38%0.330.250.210.170.140.140.140.090.070.11
YoY Growth--29.38%18.34%26.18%17.24%0.00%1.50%60.00%25.00%-33.33%481.27%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.35%0.92%0.70%0.57%1.02%0.99%0.58%0.53%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,831.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)585.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,245.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.27228.92137.35
Cash Retained (M)1,245.761,245.761,245.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.27-228.92-137.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)879.491,016.841,108.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.791,496.791,496.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.26$64.36$157.71
Upside / Downside41.35%144.17%498.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,831.341,950.382,077.152,212.172,355.962,509.102,584.37
Payout Ratio31.98%43.58%55.19%66.79%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)585.59849.991,146.291,477.511,846.962,258.192,390.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)777.68785.05792.42
Year 2 PV (M)959.56977.84996.28
Year 3 PV (M)1,131.621,164.101,197.20
Year 4 PV (M)1,294.241,344.011,395.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,447.791,517.721,590.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,074.6930,479.0031,937.07
Equity Value (M)34,685.5736,267.7237,908.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.791,496.791,496.79
Fair Value$23.17$24.23$25.33
Upside / Downside-12.09%-8.08%-3.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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