Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. (600820.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.58 - $157.37$147.48
Multi-Stage$23.77 - $26.02$24.87
Blended Fair Value$86.17
Current Price$6.40
Upside1,246.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.93%5.31%0.831.070.760.770.540.570.400.340.460.55
YoY Growth---22.53%41.87%-1.76%41.81%-4.32%40.31%20.00%-26.37%-17.21%11.59%
Dividend Yield--13.34%16.76%13.28%14.54%9.95%10.27%5.36%4.65%4.38%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,551.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)973.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,577.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)510.23318.89191.34
Cash Retained (M)1,577.461,577.461,577.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-510.23-318.89-191.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.231,258.561,386.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,224.023,224.023,224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.58$147.48$157.37
Upside / Downside1,034.02%2,204.33%2,358.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,551.142,716.972,893.573,081.653,281.963,495.293,600.15
Payout Ratio38.17%48.53%58.90%69.27%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)973.691,318.641,704.312,134.562,613.533,145.763,330.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,227.451,239.081,250.72
Year 2 PV (M)1,476.751,504.881,533.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,721.651,771.071,821.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,962.202,037.662,115.28
Year 5 PV (M)2,198.462,304.652,414.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,046.5171,333.1874,745.64
Equity Value (M)76,633.0280,190.5283,881.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3,224.023,224.023,224.02
Fair Value$23.77$24.87$26.02
Upside / Downside271.40%288.64%306.52%

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