Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. (600801.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.53 - $31.66$24.22
Multi-Stage$37.48 - $41.22$39.31
Blended Fair Value$31.77
Current Price$18.50
Upside71.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.90%9.01%0.820.810.961.031.160.790.430.320.260.37
YoY Growth--2.22%-15.87%-7.41%-10.59%46.93%83.47%33.22%25.48%-30.20%5.81%
Dividend Yield--5.93%5.76%6.16%5.24%4.87%3.38%2.47%3.03%3.63%5.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,281.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,577.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,704.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)656.33410.21246.12
Cash Retained (M)1,704.551,704.551,704.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-656.33-410.21-246.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,048.221,294.351,458.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,187.192,187.192,187.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Fair Value$18.53$24.22$31.66
Upside / Downside0.16%30.92%71.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,281.653,304.893,328.283,351.853,375.583,399.473,501.46
Payout Ratio48.06%56.45%64.83%73.22%81.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,577.101,865.492,157.892,454.332,754.863,059.533,238.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)1,739.691,757.131,774.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,876.651,914.481,952.69
Year 3 PV (M)1,990.512,051.012,112.71
Year 4 PV (M)2,083.582,168.432,255.85
Year 5 PV (M)2,157.952,268.362,383.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)72,137.5375,828.2679,668.54
Equity Value (M)81,985.9185,987.6790,147.61
Shares Outstanding (M)2,187.192,187.192,187.19
Fair Value$37.48$39.31$41.22
Upside / Downside102.62%112.51%122.79%

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