Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (600612.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$500.09 - $589.62$552.36
Multi-Stage$314.28 - $345.99$329.83
Blended Fair Value$441.09
Current Price$50.08
Upside780.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%4.83%1.951.962.031.811.781.711.481.371.271.23
YoY Growth---0.52%-3.51%12.33%1.39%4.31%15.69%7.79%7.55%3.53%1.21%
Dividend Yield--3.82%2.33%3.76%4.26%3.21%4.27%3.29%3.35%3.24%3.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,611.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,114.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)496.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.30201.44120.86
Cash Retained (M)496.55496.55496.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.30-201.44-120.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.26295.12375.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.132.132.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.462.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate0.92%0.92%0.92%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$500.09$552.36$589.62
Upside / Downside898.57%1,002.95%1,077.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,611.481,651.141,691.781,733.421,776.081,819.801,874.39
Payout Ratio69.19%73.35%77.51%81.67%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,114.931,211.101,311.331,415.761,524.541,637.821,733.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.92%0.92%0.92%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,188.381,200.091,211.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,262.581,287.591,312.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,337.551,377.491,418.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,413.291,469.841,528.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,489.811,564.691,642.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,713.21165,640.03173,882.42
Equity Value (M)164,404.83172,539.74180,995.91
Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
Fair Value$314.28$329.83$345.99
Upside / Downside527.55%558.60%590.88%

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