Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. (600559.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.64 - $139.13$106.58
Multi-Stage$17.69 - $19.33$18.49
Blended Fair Value$62.54
Current Price$17.20
Upside263.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.44%34.62%0.450.300.160.230.150.150.110.070.060.05
YoY Growth--49.44%95.12%-32.46%58.76%-0.66%30.84%57.69%13.13%23.72%117.90%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.55%0.42%1.15%0.69%1.72%0.76%0.53%0.50%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)631.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.2378.8947.34
Cash Retained (M)224.86224.86224.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.23-78.89-47.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.63145.97177.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.64$106.58$139.13
Upside / Downside113.00%519.64%708.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)631.14672.16715.86762.39811.94864.72890.66
Payout Ratio64.37%69.50%74.62%79.75%84.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.28467.14534.19607.99689.13778.25823.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)432.03436.12440.22
Year 2 PV (M)456.91465.61474.40
Year 3 PV (M)480.95494.75508.82
Year 4 PV (M)504.16523.54543.49
Year 5 PV (M)526.56551.99578.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,556.9414,211.7514,891.61
Equity Value (M)15,957.5416,683.7717,436.93
Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
Fair Value$17.69$18.49$19.33
Upside / Downside2.84%7.52%12.37%

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