Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (600519.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,317.78 - $14,270.77$13,373.80
Multi-Stage$1,924.89 - $2,103.30$2,012.47
Blended Fair Value$7,693.14
Current Price$1,443.99
Upside432.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.37%31.23%54.8325.9443.6419.3217.0514.5611.016.806.234.02
YoY Growth--111.33%-40.55%125.91%13.32%17.10%32.18%62.06%9.05%55.09%11.00%
Dividend Yield--3.51%1.51%2.40%1.12%0.85%1.31%1.28%0.99%1.61%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90,027.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64,671.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,355.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,005.4711,253.426,752.05
Cash Retained (M)25,355.6625,355.6625,355.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,005.47-11,253.42-6,752.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,350.1914,102.2518,603.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
LTM Dividend per Share51.5551.5551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.4162.7966.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,317.78$13,373.80$14,270.77
Upside / Downside199.02%826.17%888.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90,027.3495,879.12102,111.26108,748.49115,817.14123,345.26127,045.62
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.73%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64,671.6872,358.5180,771.3989,972.24100,027.93111,010.73117,517.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67,050.8167,686.3668,321.91
Year 2 PV (M)69,356.3770,677.4172,010.92
Year 3 PV (M)71,589.8873,644.9775,739.02
Year 4 PV (M)73,752.8576,589.1879,506.53
Year 5 PV (M)75,846.7379,510.1683,313.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,057,375.862,156,747.882,259,923.10
Equity Value (M)2,414,972.492,524,855.952,638,815.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
Fair Value$1,924.89$2,012.47$2,103.30
Upside / Downside33.30%39.37%45.66%

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