Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ling Yun Industrial Corporation Limited (600480.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.93 - $138.95$130.21
Multi-Stage$98.15 - $107.70$102.84
Blended Fair Value$116.52
Current Price$13.92
Upside737.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.11%11.02%0.380.200.150.220.120.230.210.180.140.19
YoY Growth--88.84%31.76%-31.54%86.36%-49.02%13.45%14.43%33.55%-28.08%41.00%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.58%2.55%3.36%1.87%5.01%3.00%2.11%1.33%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)742.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)421.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.5892.8655.72
Cash Retained (M)321.34321.34321.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.58-92.86-55.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.76228.47265.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,063.331,063.331,063.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate-1.70%-1.70%-1.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.93$130.21$138.95
Upside / Downside747.23%835.44%898.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)742.91791.20842.63897.40955.731,017.851,048.38
Payout Ratio56.75%63.40%70.05%76.70%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)421.57501.59590.24688.29796.59916.06969.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.70%-1.70%-1.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)505.47510.26515.06
Year 2 PV (M)599.40610.82622.35
Year 3 PV (M)704.38724.60745.20
Year 4 PV (M)821.52853.11885.61
Year 5 PV (M)952.04998.021,045.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,783.66105,651.55110,705.75
Equity Value (M)104,366.48109,348.37114,519.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,063.331,063.331,063.33
Fair Value$98.15$102.84$107.70
Upside / Downside605.11%638.77%673.70%

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