Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (600458.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.86 - $62.56$30.73
Multi-Stage$12.38 - $13.52$12.94
Blended Fair Value$21.83
Current Price$15.11
Upside44.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.66%17.76%0.250.140.080.120.020.040.050.100.050.02
YoY Growth--83.22%72.89%-36.00%400.00%-37.50%-20.00%-50.00%100.00%203.44%-66.67%
Dividend Yield--1.84%1.19%0.70%1.16%0.29%0.58%0.49%1.15%0.34%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)352.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.6771.0442.62
Cash Retained (M)352.48352.48352.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.67-71.04-42.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)238.82281.44309.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.86$30.73$62.56
Upside / Downside24.80%103.36%314.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.33605.27644.61686.51731.13778.66802.01
Payout Ratio37.98%48.38%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.84292.84378.95475.00581.95700.79741.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)267.12269.65272.18
Year 2 PV (M)315.29321.30327.36
Year 3 PV (M)360.50370.84381.39
Year 4 PV (M)402.86418.35434.29
Year 5 PV (M)442.51463.88486.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,363.038,766.969,186.36
Equity Value (M)10,151.3110,611.0011,087.66
Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
Fair Value$12.38$12.94$13.52
Upside / Downside-18.09%-14.38%-10.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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