Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

NARI Technology Co., Ltd. (600406.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$169.20 - $199.34$186.81
Multi-Stage$119.65 - $131.27$125.35
Blended Fair Value$156.08
Current Price$22.96
Upside579.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.03%34.95%0.680.330.290.250.180.270.310.320.080.05
YoY Growth--104.79%13.45%16.53%43.25%-35.76%-12.33%-1.13%283.04%59.75%51.61%
Dividend Yield--3.11%1.36%1.30%1.15%0.97%2.39%2.48%3.24%0.88%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,992.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,526.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,466.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,598.52999.08599.45
Cash Retained (M)3,466.413,466.413,466.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,598.52-999.08-599.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,867.892,467.332,866.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,973.937,973.937,973.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.310.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.310.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$169.20$186.81$199.34
Upside / Downside636.91%713.64%768.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,992.618,512.139,065.429,654.6810,282.2310,950.5711,279.09
Payout Ratio56.63%63.30%69.98%76.65%83.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,526.215,388.516,343.797,400.508,567.779,855.5210,433.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,254.035,303.835,353.64
Year 2 PV (M)6,031.116,145.986,261.94
Year 3 PV (M)6,860.147,057.077,257.73
Year 4 PV (M)7,743.978,041.798,348.11
Year 5 PV (M)8,685.609,105.129,540.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)919,467.04963,877.641,009,987.94
Equity Value (M)954,041.90999,531.431,046,750.05
Shares Outstanding (M)7,973.937,973.937,973.93
Fair Value$119.65$125.35$131.27
Upside / Downside421.10%445.95%471.74%

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