Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shan Xi Huayang Group New Energy Co.,Ltd. (600348.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.23 - $22.70$13.78
Multi-Stage$8.66 - $9.48$9.06
Blended Fair Value$11.42
Current Price$7.37
Upside54.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.54%18.41%0.920.800.340.500.420.190.320.190.140.11
YoY Growth--15.39%138.83%-33.13%19.22%123.99%-40.82%65.47%35.70%33.69%-38.04%
Dividend Yield--13.72%8.67%3.64%6.23%12.49%6.12%7.62%3.99%3.09%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,529.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)549.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)980.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)305.99191.24114.75
Cash Retained (M)980.94980.94980.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-305.99-191.24-114.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)674.95789.70866.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$9.23$13.78$22.70
Upside / Downside25.24%87.01%208.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,529.941,602.861,679.261,759.301,843.161,931.011,988.94
Payout Ratio35.88%46.71%57.53%68.35%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)549.00748.65966.081,202.541,459.351,737.911,839.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)689.09695.73702.37
Year 2 PV (M)818.49834.34850.34
Year 3 PV (M)937.77965.14993.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,047.491,088.461,130.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,148.201,204.601,263.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,388.9627,685.2629,032.01
Equity Value (M)31,029.9932,473.5333,971.58
Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
Fair Value$8.66$9.06$9.48
Upside / Downside17.49%22.96%28.63%

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