Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.,Ltd. (600251.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.31 - $56.43$23.67
Multi-Stage$6.29 - $6.87$6.57
Blended Fair Value$15.12
Current Price$8.21
Upside84.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.20%12.03%0.530.280.150.100.030.090.140.100.140.16
YoY Growth--88.04%90.25%53.80%204.29%-65.27%-32.99%35.47%-30.00%-13.31%-2.75%
Dividend Yield--7.51%3.28%1.74%0.98%0.46%1.36%2.17%1.42%1.65%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.9527.4716.48
Cash Retained (M)109.58109.58109.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.95-27.47-16.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.6382.1193.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.31$23.67$56.43
Upside / Downside37.80%188.36%587.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.74234.02249.23265.43282.69301.06310.09
Payout Ratio50.13%58.11%66.08%74.05%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.16135.98164.69196.56231.88270.95286.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.17126.35127.54
Year 2 PV (M)139.54142.20144.88
Year 3 PV (M)153.31157.71162.19
Year 4 PV (M)166.47172.88179.46
Year 5 PV (M)179.06187.71196.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,105.664,303.974,509.86
Equity Value (M)4,869.225,090.825,320.63
Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
Fair Value$6.29$6.57$6.87
Upside / Downside-23.41%-19.92%-16.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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