Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.62$1.41
Multi-Stage$2.83 - $3.11$2.97
Blended Fair Value$2.19
Current Price$17.12
Upside-87.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.61%-5.44%0.660.610.690.811.091.462.021.811.361.30
YoY Growth--8.99%-11.55%-15.23%-25.34%-25.60%-27.86%11.51%33.41%4.37%12.45%
Dividend Yield--4.20%3.98%4.79%4.77%5.52%7.12%7.61%5.34%5.36%6.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,859.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,145.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)714.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)571.96357.48214.49
Cash Retained (M)714.46714.46714.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-571.96-357.48-214.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.50356.98499.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,414.2011,414.2011,414.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-7.44%-6.44%-5.44%
Fair Value$1.19$1.41$1.62
Upside / Downside-93.02%-91.76%-90.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,859.812,675.722,503.482,342.322,191.542,050.462,111.98
Payout Ratio75.02%78.01%81.01%84.01%87.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,145.352,087.432,028.071,967.711,906.711,845.421,953.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-7.44%-6.44%-5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)1,910.481,931.121,951.76
Year 2 PV (M)1,698.811,735.711,773.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,508.521,557.941,608.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,337.841,396.601,457.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,185.071,250.481,318.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,625.3525,984.6027,403.23
Equity Value (M)32,266.0633,856.4535,512.45
Shares Outstanding (M)11,414.2011,414.2011,414.20
Fair Value$2.83$2.97$3.11
Upside / Downside-83.49%-82.67%-81.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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