Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (600096.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.75 - $82.51$60.30
Multi-Stage$79.77 - $87.63$83.63
Blended Fair Value$71.96
Current Price$26.80
Upside168.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%35.96%1.331.420.670.800.991.341.471.451.221.34
YoY Growth---6.01%112.21%-16.77%-18.87%-26.22%-9.04%1.93%18.29%-8.90%2,073.56%
Dividend Yield--5.83%7.34%3.15%3.17%13.48%23.94%21.00%20.37%13.85%13.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,637.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,879.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,758.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,127.56704.72422.83
Cash Retained (M)2,758.422,758.422,758.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,127.56-704.72-422.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,630.862,053.702,335.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,828.661,828.661,828.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.571.571.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$44.75$60.30$82.51
Upside / Downside66.97%124.99%207.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,637.805,731.205,826.145,922.676,020.796,120.536,304.15
Payout Ratio51.07%58.86%66.64%74.43%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,879.383,373.283,882.754,408.194,949.965,508.485,831.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)3,144.963,176.203,207.45
Year 2 PV (M)3,374.933,442.323,510.38
Year 3 PV (M)3,572.303,679.833,789.50
Year 4 PV (M)3,739.833,890.684,046.04
Year 5 PV (M)3,880.114,076.724,281.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)128,167.99134,662.35141,417.33
Equity Value (M)145,880.12152,928.10160,251.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,828.661,828.661,828.66
Fair Value$79.77$83.63$87.63
Upside / Downside197.67%212.05%226.99%

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