Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited (600064.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.55 - $19.44$15.74
Multi-Stage$28.06 - $30.93$29.47
Blended Fair Value$22.60
Current Price$8.06
Upside180.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.40%4.56%0.440.470.540.360.370.220.150.300.250.17
YoY Growth---6.68%-11.58%49.85%-2.19%69.21%46.10%-50.68%20.73%46.67%-40.21%
Dividend Yield--6.05%7.50%8.07%4.89%5.08%3.66%1.75%5.69%3.99%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,325.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,962.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.04290.65174.39
Cash Retained (M)1,962.501,962.501,962.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.04-290.65-174.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,497.461,671.851,788.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.55$15.74$19.44
Upside / Downside55.70%95.30%141.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,325.222,301.972,278.952,256.162,233.602,211.262,277.60
Payout Ratio15.60%30.48%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.72701.631,033.721,359.101,677.871,990.132,106.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)652.79659.45666.12
Year 2 PV (M)894.83913.19931.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,094.611,128.461,163.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,257.291,309.401,363.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,387.481,459.731,534.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,262.2845,515.0447,860.69
Equity Value (M)48,549.2950,985.2853,519.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
Fair Value$28.06$29.47$30.93
Upside / Downside248.11%265.57%283.75%

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