Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Xiangyu Co., Ltd. (600057.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.66 - $167.21$56.28
Multi-Stage$23.98 - $26.24$25.09
Blended Fair Value$40.69
Current Price$7.01
Upside480.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.58%13.26%0.821.261.090.810.770.690.470.340.180.22
YoY Growth---34.43%15.53%34.43%4.56%11.98%48.60%36.63%85.15%-14.98%-8.84%
Dividend Yield--14.05%18.77%10.13%9.20%12.04%13.53%9.11%6.25%2.60%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,162.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,675.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)487.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.49270.30162.18
Cash Retained (M)487.22487.22487.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.49-270.30-162.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.73216.92325.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$29.66$56.28$167.21
Upside / Downside323.11%702.91%2,285.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,162.432,273.222,389.682,512.102,640.802,776.092,859.38
Payout Ratio77.47%79.98%82.48%84.99%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,675.211,818.011,971.042,134.982,310.542,498.482,644.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,690.571,706.811,723.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,704.401,737.291,770.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,716.751,766.691,817.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,727.691,795.021,864.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,737.271,822.311,910.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,321.3354,882.5357,543.06
Equity Value (M)60,898.0263,710.6666,629.16
Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
Fair Value$23.98$25.09$26.24
Upside / Downside242.15%257.95%274.35%

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