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Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited (600015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.13 - $338.91$251.26
Multi-Stage$43.33 - $47.38$45.32
Blended Fair Value$148.29
Current Price$6.58
Upside2,153.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.63%13.64%0.990.960.880.800.680.540.440.310.300.31
YoY Growth--2.96%9.10%9.91%18.03%24.39%22.98%44.34%2.56%-4.17%13.59%
Dividend Yield--12.60%14.61%16.33%14.37%10.51%8.41%5.24%3.44%3.18%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,147.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,510.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,637.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,429.403,393.382,036.03
Cash Retained (M)13,637.0013,637.0013,637.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,429.40-3,393.38-2,036.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,207.6010,243.6311,600.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$88.13$251.26$338.91
Upside / Downside1,239.34%3,718.56%5,050.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,147.0028,884.2530,732.6732,699.3834,791.9537,018.4338,128.98
Payout Ratio49.77%57.81%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,510.0016,698.8120,240.4324,166.9528,513.1233,316.5935,269.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)15,455.1515,601.7815,748.42
Year 2 PV (M)17,337.8417,668.3918,002.07
Year 3 PV (M)19,159.5219,710.0520,271.02
Year 4 PV (M)20,921.6121,726.9722,555.37
Year 5 PV (M)22,625.5123,719.4024,855.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)594,120.23622,844.37652,668.90
Equity Value (M)689,619.85721,270.96754,100.96
Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
Fair Value$43.33$45.32$47.38
Upside / Downside558.53%588.76%620.11%

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