Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Te Chang Construction Co., Ltd. (5511.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$751.29 - $1,629.01$1,526.62
Multi-Stage$247.35 - $270.67$258.80
Blended Fair Value$892.71
Current Price$61.40
Upside1,353.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.95%0.00%4.982.391.991.992.192.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--108.33%20.00%0.00%-9.09%4.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.28%3.34%5.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)932.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)501.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.49116.5569.93
Cash Retained (M)501.36501.36501.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.49-116.55-69.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.87384.81431.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
LTM Dividend per Share3.793.793.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.557.177.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$751.29$1,526.62$1,629.01
Upside / Downside1,123.60%2,386.35%2,553.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)932.43993.041,057.591,126.331,199.541,277.511,315.84
Payout Ratio46.23%54.98%63.74%72.49%81.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.07546.02674.09816.50974.581,149.761,217.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)508.26513.08517.90
Year 2 PV (M)584.09595.21606.44
Year 3 PV (M)658.56677.46696.73
Year 4 PV (M)731.70759.84788.78
Year 5 PV (M)803.53842.34882.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,870.7426,072.0027,319.24
Equity Value (M)28,156.8829,459.9430,811.73
Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
Fair Value$247.35$258.80$270.67
Upside / Downside302.85%321.49%340.83%

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