Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.46 - $30.61$26.77
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.37$4.18
Blended Fair Value$15.47
Current Price$1.56
Upside891.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.090.070.030.010.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--30.10%21.53%175.67%102.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.35%4.40%2.56%1.25%1.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)117.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.5014.698.81
Cash Retained (M)30.0030.0030.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.50-14.69-8.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.5015.3121.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)763.50763.50763.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.46$26.77$30.61
Upside / Downside442.16%1,616.01%1,861.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)117.50125.13133.27141.93151.16160.98165.81
Payout Ratio74.47%77.58%80.68%83.79%86.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.5097.07107.52118.92131.35144.88153.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.8490.6991.54
Year 2 PV (M)92.1093.8595.62
Year 3 PV (M)94.2796.9899.74
Year 4 PV (M)96.36100.07103.88
Year 5 PV (M)98.38103.13108.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,580.502,705.142,834.55
Equity Value (M)3,051.453,189.863,333.40
Shares Outstanding (M)763.50763.50763.50
Fair Value$4.00$4.18$4.37
Upside / Downside156.20%167.82%179.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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