Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (4887.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,016.77 - $1,740.77$1,330.18
Multi-Stage$2,970.36 - $3,272.07$3,118.25
Blended Fair Value$2,224.21
Current Price$2,004.50
Upside10.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.54%5.15%50.8747.7247.7147.7147.7049.5347.6940.1740.1733.94
YoY Growth--6.60%0.02%0.00%0.02%-3.69%3.85%18.74%0.00%18.35%10.23%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.15%3.95%3.48%2.89%2.73%2.63%2.21%2.21%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,543.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,976.601,235.38741.23
Cash Retained (M)3,543.003,543.003,543.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,976.60-1,235.38-741.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,566.402,307.632,801.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
LTM Dividend per Share53.1353.1353.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2672.4776.61
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Fair Value$1,016.77$1,330.18$1,740.77
Upside / Downside-49.28%-33.64%-13.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,883.009,853.449,823.969,794.579,765.289,736.0610,028.15
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,340.006,830.457,317.907,802.388,283.898,762.469,276.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Year 1 PV (M)6,431.826,496.986,562.15
Year 2 PV (M)6,488.676,620.826,754.30
Year 3 PV (M)6,514.506,714.526,918.59
Year 4 PV (M)6,512.886,780.877,057.04
Year 5 PV (M)6,487.086,822.437,171.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)322,017.40338,664.12355,992.26
Equity Value (M)354,452.36372,099.74390,455.85
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$2,970.36$3,118.25$3,272.07
Upside / Downside48.18%55.56%63.24%

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