Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Paraca Inc. (4809.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,992.76 - $9,089.04$5,810.00
Multi-Stage$3,025.59 - $3,304.26$3,162.40
Blended Fair Value$4,486.20
Current Price$1,989.00
Upside125.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.65%19.39%63.4363.0561.1254.1953.8150.5348.4243.2238.1227.34
YoY Growth--0.61%3.15%12.79%0.72%6.48%4.37%12.03%13.38%39.44%153.57%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.43%3.14%2.90%3.31%3.13%2.29%2.60%1.50%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,044.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,385.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)408.80255.50153.30
Cash Retained (M)1,385.001,385.001,385.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-408.80-255.50-153.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)976.201,129.501,231.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.3910.3910.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share93.97108.72118.56
LTM Dividend per Share63.4363.4363.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share93.97108.72118.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend157.40172.15181.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Fair Value$3,992.76$5,810.00$9,089.04
Upside / Downside100.74%192.11%356.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,044.002,170.102,303.982,446.122,597.022,757.242,839.96
Payout Ratio32.24%43.79%55.34%66.90%78.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.00950.341,275.121,636.362,037.322,481.522,626.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)861.17869.36877.55
Year 2 PV (M)1,047.061,067.071,087.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,217.611,252.671,288.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,373.721,426.721,481.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,516.231,589.701,665.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,416.7526,648.3327,927.19
Equity Value (M)31,432.5532,853.8534,327.63
Shares Outstanding (M)10.3910.3910.39
Fair Value$3,025.59$3,162.40$3,304.26
Upside / Downside52.12%58.99%66.13%

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