Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

UMW Holdings Berhad (4588.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.66 - $8.24$6.91
Multi-Stage$9.56 - $10.51$10.03
Blended Fair Value$8.47
Current Price$4.76
Upside77.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%-7.14%0.150.100.080.120.080.000.100.410.440.50
YoY Growth--48.10%25.07%-35.98%55.19%0.00%-100.00%-75.61%-6.82%-12.00%61.29%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.03%2.45%5.82%1.41%0.00%1.81%6.46%4.39%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)686.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.47110.9266.55
Cash Retained (M)686.41686.41686.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.47-110.92-66.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)508.94575.49619.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.66$6.91$8.24
Upside / Downside18.82%45.07%73.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.33878.45869.67860.97852.36843.84869.15
Payout Ratio22.64%36.11%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.92317.25431.23542.90652.30759.45803.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)289.37292.32295.27
Year 2 PV (M)358.77366.13373.56
Year 3 PV (M)411.98424.72437.72
Year 4 PV (M)451.49470.20489.49
Year 5 PV (M)479.46504.43530.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,182.039,660.1610,158.01
Equity Value (M)11,173.1011,717.9612,284.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
Fair Value$9.56$10.03$10.51
Upside / Downside100.92%110.71%120.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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