Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kao Corporation (4452.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,106.36 - $3,113.11$2,588.33
Multi-Stage$3,135.69 - $3,430.59$3,280.36
Blended Fair Value$2,934.35
Current Price$6,451.00
Upside-54.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.03%7.57%151.36149.41148.53146.22140.03130.39122.47108.3895.2180.02
YoY Growth--1.31%0.59%1.58%4.42%7.40%6.46%13.00%13.83%18.99%9.69%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.59%2.87%2.91%1.91%1.48%1.40%1.36%1.56%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121,459.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71,246.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)50,213.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,291.8015,182.389,109.43
Cash Retained (M)50,213.0050,213.0050,213.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,291.80-15,182.38-9,109.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,921.2035,030.6341,103.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.10464.10464.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.8575.4888.57
LTM Dividend per Share153.52153.52153.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.8575.4888.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend209.37229.00242.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Fair Value$2,106.36$2,588.33$3,113.11
Upside / Downside-67.35%-59.88%-51.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121,459.00122,219.91122,985.58123,756.06124,531.36125,311.51129,070.86
Payout Ratio58.66%64.93%71.20%77.46%83.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71,246.0079,353.4587,559.6995,865.64104,272.22112,780.36119,390.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Year 1 PV (M)71,729.6372,449.6173,169.60
Year 2 PV (M)71,543.4272,986.8674,444.72
Year 3 PV (M)70,804.5572,958.1275,154.93
Year 4 PV (M)69,614.4772,451.8675,375.10
Year 5 PV (M)68,060.8171,545.8875,172.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,103,509.321,160,014.671,218,811.37
Equity Value (M)1,455,262.201,522,407.001,592,127.98
Shares Outstanding (M)464.10464.10464.10
Fair Value$3,135.69$3,280.36$3,430.59
Upside / Downside-51.39%-49.15%-46.82%

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