Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ARTERIA Networks Corporation (4423.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,030.83 - $1,572.20$1,284.38
Multi-Stage$2,207.13 - $2,427.55$2,315.19
Blended Fair Value$1,799.78
Current Price$1,970.00
Upside-8.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%61.6684.3653.0326.210.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.92%59.10%102.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.13%6.90%2.94%1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,800.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,023.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,777.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.00725.00435.00
Cash Retained (M)2,777.002,777.002,777.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.00-725.00-435.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,617.002,052.002,342.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
LTM Dividend per Share60.5360.5360.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.3841.0946.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.91101.62107.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,030.83$1,284.38$1,572.20
Upside / Downside-47.67%-34.80%-20.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,800.005,742.005,684.585,627.735,571.465,515.745,681.21
Payout Ratio52.12%59.70%67.27%74.85%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,023.003,427.783,824.154,212.264,592.234,964.175,255.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,176.123,208.533,240.94
Year 2 PV (M)3,283.253,350.603,418.63
Year 3 PV (M)3,350.963,454.593,560.33
Year 4 PV (M)3,385.023,525.313,669.92
Year 5 PV (M)3,390.543,567.093,750.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,635.3298,511.13103,587.97
Equity Value (M)110,221.21115,617.25121,228.72
Shares Outstanding (M)49.9449.9449.94
Fair Value$2,207.13$2,315.19$2,427.55
Upside / Downside12.04%17.52%23.23%

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