Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. (4207.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.75 - $321.09$300.09
Multi-Stage$53.98 - $59.11$56.50
Blended Fair Value$178.29
Current Price$19.00
Upside838.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.47%0.00%0.380.310.330.530.300.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.71%-5.06%-38.46%74.08%21.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.80%2.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7540.4724.28
Cash Retained (M)125.19125.19125.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.75-40.47-24.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.4584.73100.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$90.75$300.09$321.09
Upside / Downside377.63%1,479.42%1,589.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.73341.60360.45380.35401.34423.49436.19
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.54229.08262.40298.69338.19381.14403.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)214.03216.08218.12
Year 2 PV (M)229.04233.44237.89
Year 3 PV (M)243.58250.64257.83
Year 4 PV (M)257.67267.67277.96
Year 5 PV (M)271.31284.54298.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,508.879,972.5510,454.14
Equity Value (M)10,724.5011,224.9111,744.22
Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
Fair Value$53.98$56.50$59.11
Upside / Downside184.10%197.36%211.11%

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