DDM Analysis: 4204.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,759.12 - $2,758.89	$2,218.24
Multi-Stage	$1,702.69 - $1,853.64	$1,776.82
Blended Fair Value	$1,997.53
Current Price	$2,755.00
Upside	-27.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	8.45%	9.62%	76.71	66.85	57.21	51.72	50.33	51.13	47.33	43.56	37.32	33.20
YoY Growth	-	-	14.75%	16.85%	10.61%	2.77%	-1.57%	8.02%	8.67%	16.71%	12.43%	8.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	3.00%	2.76%	2.79%	2.65%	3.32%	2.84%	2.31%	1.86%	2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	70,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33,106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	37,615.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14,144.20	8,840.13	5,304.08
Cash Retained (M)	37,615.00	37,615.00	37,615.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14,144.20	-8,840.13	-5,304.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23,470.80	28,774.88	32,310.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	416.31	416.31	416.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	56.38	69.12	77.61
LTM Dividend per Share	79.52	79.52	79.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	56.38	69.12	77.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	135.90	148.64	157.14
WACC / Discount Rate	12.19%	12.19%	12.19%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Fair Value	$1,759.12	$2,218.24	$2,758.89
Upside / Downside	-36.15%	-19.48%	0.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	70,721.00	74,355.98	78,177.78	82,196.03	86,420.81	90,862.74	93,588.62
Payout Ratio	46.81%	55.45%	64.09%	72.72%	81.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33,106.00	41,230.16	50,102.01	59,776.94	70,314.06	81,776.46	86,569.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	12.19%	12.19%	12.19%
Growth Rate	4.14%	5.14%	6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	36,402.33	36,751.88	37,101.43
Year 2 PV (M)	39,055.61	39,809.27	40,570.13
Year 3 PV (M)	41,141.11	42,337.70	43,557.26
Year 4 PV (M)	42,726.63	44,391.55	46,104.65
Year 5 PV (M)	43,873.16	46,020.45	48,251.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	505,647.32	530,395.38	556,103.09
Equity Value (M)	708,846.15	739,706.22	771,687.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	416.31	416.31	416.31
Fair Value	$1,702.69	$1,776.82	$1,853.64
Upside / Downside	-38.20%	-35.51%	-32.72%

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Sector

Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. (4204.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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