Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,613.02 - $3,700.36$2,353.56
Multi-Stage$2,141.65 - $2,350.21$2,243.96
Blended Fair Value$2,298.76
Current Price$851.30
Upside170.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.33%9.95%32.3431.3230.2927.2524.2140.3537.5527.6016.6514.57
YoY Growth--3.26%3.38%11.17%12.54%-39.98%7.45%36.04%65.81%14.29%16.27%
Dividend Yield--4.27%3.41%3.51%3.70%2.59%6.43%4.83%2.98%1.79%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)68,689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,846.2014,278.888,567.33
Cash Retained (M)68,689.0068,689.0068,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,846.20-14,278.88-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,842.8054,410.1360,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
LTM Dividend per Share32.3532.3532.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.9170.9975.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$1,613.02$2,353.56$3,700.36
Upside / Downside89.48%176.47%334.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114,231.00117,932.17121,753.25125,698.15129,770.86133,975.53137,994.79
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,542.0058,841.8672,955.7787,922.50103,782.51120,577.97127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)54,790.3855,326.2855,862.18
Year 2 PV (M)63,255.0864,498.5165,754.05
Year 3 PV (M)70,982.8973,086.1575,230.56
Year 4 PV (M)78,018.1581,115.5884,304.33
Year 5 PV (M)84,402.8988,612.1192,987.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,663,754.642,796,597.592,934,688.42
Equity Value (M)3,015,204.023,159,236.223,308,827.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
Fair Value$2,141.65$2,243.96$2,350.21
Upside / Downside151.57%163.59%176.07%

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