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Definitive Analysis

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Hodogaya Chemical Co., Ltd. (4112.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,519.09 - $12,133.42$6,935.75
Multi-Stage$3,110.66 - $3,397.19$3,251.33
Blended Fair Value$5,093.54
Current Price$1,455.00
Upside250.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.15%7.87%61.3251.6245.0339.6335.9736.1536.2443.1135.8835.97
YoY Growth--18.79%14.63%13.63%10.18%-0.51%-0.25%-15.92%20.15%-0.25%25.16%
Dividend Yield--4.21%1.88%2.61%2.40%1.82%1.66%2.49%2.58%1.60%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,085.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)670.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,415.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)417.00260.63156.38
Cash Retained (M)1,415.001,415.001,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-417.00-260.63-156.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)998.001,154.381,258.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.9310.9310.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share91.34105.65115.19
LTM Dividend per Share61.3261.3261.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share91.34105.65115.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend152.66166.97176.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,519.09$6,935.75$12,133.42
Upside / Downside210.59%376.68%733.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,085.002,220.532,364.862,518.572,682.282,856.632,942.33
Payout Ratio32.13%43.71%55.28%66.85%78.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)670.00970.531,307.311,683.762,103.632,570.972,721.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)881.52889.88898.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,078.501,099.051,119.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,261.671,297.891,334.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,431.721,486.781,543.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,589.301,666.071,745.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,745.6529,085.7730,477.19
Equity Value (M)33,988.3735,525.4337,119.18
Shares Outstanding (M)10.9310.9310.93
Fair Value$3,110.66$3,251.33$3,397.19
Upside / Downside113.79%123.46%133.48%

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