Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Air Water Inc. (4088.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,829.75 - $43,797.47$41,044.64
Multi-Stage$6,460.32 - $7,072.15$6,760.61
Blended Fair Value$23,902.63
Current Price$2,153.00
Upside1,010.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.49%11.06%65.9961.9756.9448.9345.6935.0634.3531.7523.9524.81
YoY Growth--6.49%8.83%16.36%7.11%30.32%2.05%8.20%32.58%-3.45%7.27%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.85%2.86%2.87%2.67%2.30%1.86%1.56%1.16%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50,437.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,608.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33,829.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,087.406,304.633,782.78
Cash Retained (M)33,829.0033,829.0033,829.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,087.40-6,304.63-3,782.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,741.6027,524.3830,046.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.02229.02229.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share103.66120.18131.19
LTM Dividend per Share72.5272.5272.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share103.66120.18131.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend176.18192.70203.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,829.75$41,044.64$43,797.47
Upside / Downside774.58%1,806.39%1,934.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50,437.0053,715.4157,206.9160,925.3664,885.5069,103.0671,176.15
Payout Ratio32.93%44.34%55.76%67.17%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,608.0023,818.7931,896.8140,924.3450,990.6962,192.7565,837.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22,157.7422,367.7722,577.79
Year 2 PV (M)27,603.1628,128.9328,659.65
Year 3 PV (M)32,945.7333,891.4834,855.16
Year 4 PV (M)38,186.8739,655.4341,165.95
Year 5 PV (M)43,328.0245,420.7847,593.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,315,343.861,378,875.461,444,838.56
Equity Value (M)1,479,565.381,548,339.841,619,690.74
Shares Outstanding (M)229.02229.02229.02
Fair Value$6,460.32$6,760.61$7,072.15
Upside / Downside200.06%214.01%228.48%

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