Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Ground Services Company (4031.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.95 - $11.94$10.49
Multi-Stage$16.88 - $18.57$17.71
Blended Fair Value$14.10
Current Price$46.56
Upside-69.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.15%-5.50%1.000.000.000.000.001.801.953.251.812.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-7.69%-40.00%79.56%-15.31%21.76%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.85%6.70%8.85%3.53%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)394.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.8549.2829.57
Cash Retained (M)205.67205.67205.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.85-49.28-29.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.81156.38176.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Fair Value$8.95$10.49$11.94
Upside / Downside-80.79%-77.46%-74.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)394.26368.63344.67322.26301.31281.72290.17
Payout Ratio47.84%56.27%64.70%73.13%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.60207.42223.00235.68245.77253.55268.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Year 1 PV (M)186.81188.83190.85
Year 2 PV (M)180.88184.81188.79
Year 3 PV (M)172.16177.81183.57
Year 4 PV (M)161.69168.80176.13
Year 5 PV (M)150.23158.53167.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,322.352,450.632,584.52
Equity Value (M)3,174.123,329.403,491.04
Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
Fair Value$16.88$17.71$18.57
Upside / Downside-63.74%-61.96%-60.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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