Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kureha Corporation (4023.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,729.71 - $5,144.19$3,709.43
Multi-Stage$5,082.00 - $5,584.44$5,328.39
Blended Fair Value$4,518.91
Current Price$3,820.00
Upside18.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.25%8.96%99.73112.74104.4271.0171.0177.2261.8743.5140.4544.11
YoY Growth---11.54%7.97%47.05%0.00%-8.04%24.80%42.20%7.57%-8.30%4.35%
Dividend Yield--3.17%4.01%3.82%2.23%3.31%4.92%2.50%1.65%2.19%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,468.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,431.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,037.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,693.601,058.50635.10
Cash Retained (M)4,037.004,037.004,037.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,693.60-1,058.50-635.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,343.402,978.503,401.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.7346.7346.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.1563.7572.81
LTM Dividend per Share94.8394.8394.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.1563.7572.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend144.98158.58167.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Fair Value$2,729.71$3,709.43$5,144.19
Upside / Downside-28.54%-2.89%34.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,468.008,604.758,743.708,884.909,028.389,174.179,449.40
Payout Ratio52.33%59.86%67.40%74.93%82.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,431.005,150.905,892.896,657.517,445.288,256.768,740.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)4,813.384,861.224,909.06
Year 2 PV (M)5,145.935,248.735,352.54
Year 3 PV (M)5,432.685,596.285,763.14
Year 4 PV (M)5,677.435,906.526,142.48
Year 5 PV (M)5,883.666,181.926,492.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)210,503.75221,174.63232,273.93
Equity Value (M)237,456.83248,969.30260,933.30
Shares Outstanding (M)46.7346.7346.73
Fair Value$5,082.00$5,328.39$5,584.44
Upside / Downside33.04%39.49%46.19%

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