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Definitive Analysis

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Bosideng International Holdings Limited (3998.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.03 - $114.17$106.99
Multi-Stage$18.07 - $19.76$18.90
Blended Fair Value$62.94
Current Price$3.72
Upside1,592.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS25.12%29.35%0.230.160.150.110.080.080.060.020.030.01
YoY Growth--43.42%7.17%31.48%48.82%1.96%16.78%273.28%-31.63%367.19%-69.30%
Dividend Yield--6.20%4.42%3.92%3.85%2.60%4.53%3.93%2.80%4.25%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,587.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,622.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,965.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,317.60823.50494.10
Cash Retained (M)1,965.091,965.091,965.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,317.60-823.50-494.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)647.491,141.591,470.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,476.0311,476.0311,476.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.03$106.99$114.17
Upside / Downside1,460.05%2,776.11%2,969.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,587.997,016.207,472.267,957.958,475.229,026.119,296.89
Payout Ratio70.17%74.14%78.10%82.07%86.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,622.905,201.625,836.066,530.997,291.608,123.508,599.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,845.814,891.744,937.67
Year 2 PV (M)5,064.935,161.405,258.79
Year 3 PV (M)5,280.325,431.905,586.35
Year 4 PV (M)5,492.015,703.225,920.46
Year 5 PV (M)5,700.055,975.376,261.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,940.36189,679.84198,753.81
Equity Value (M)207,323.47216,843.47226,718.29
Shares Outstanding (M)11,476.0311,476.0311,476.03
Fair Value$18.07$18.90$19.76
Upside / Downside385.64%407.94%431.07%

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